viernes, 18 de noviembre de 2016

USDCAD -4pips

So many lessons learned today, mostly about patience, trading London and not trying to do something just to be doing something. 

So, I got up at 7am and what I had seen at midnight had already passed (up move to 0.7055 to fill a void on NZDUSD). I missed that GBP was giving a retracement to get a chance to get short to get my objective of 1.2345 sell stops being taken out. I did not really see anything on EUR, so I was looking at CAD. 

At the time I'm seeing that it has stalled at a +OB, and that GBPUSD still has room to drop (bullish USD). USDX was showing the same thing as USDCAD:

The analysis by itself is defensible, the problem I believe lies in the execution. I took the trade at 7:37am, at 1.3508, with an objective of 1.3565 stops, and a stop loss of 1.3493, essentially a 3R trade. What I failed to account for was that there would be a news release at 8:30am for CAD of high impact news, so I should have waited to see how it behaved prior to that. I guess I did not want to miss the trade by it going long, which is obviously flawed thinking.

USDCAD rejected faster at the 8:30am news release after dropping to 1.3497 and then stalled at 1.3430, where it started trading a bit lower, in tandem with USDX. I thought it'd ran higher already and trailed my stop to 1.3403 below the body of the closest +OB. 

Price went exactly to 1.3403, took me out, then continued higher and it currently sits at 1.3440, with USDX going higher as well.



I guess the takeaway from all of this is: don't try to do something because you are afraid you will miss a trade, because you are going to miss most of them, there are set ups every day.
Do not rush to trade ahead of the news, by mindful of those. Do not trail the stop too tightly.
I was thinking I had dodged a bullet and didn't want to suffer a bigger loss. I was also trying to make back what I'd lost the previous week all at once.

The minimum lot size is one mini on this account, which I'm treating as a 1,000 account (thought it's really 5,000). I had made 5.1% for the week on my trades for the week which was more than enough.

The psychological aspect is definitely a lot more important than the analytical one, because even with a solid idea, trade mismanagement can be killer.

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