EURUSD Short +12pips

I was up for London session looking for a short on a currency opposite the USDX as I was thinking it still wanted to go higher. My hypothesis for the day was that USDX would drop seeking liquidity and then drive higher as it had been doing for most of the time on up days.

There were some news releases at 3:00am for EUR, as well as 3:30am and 4:30am, so I was focused on that one, although because of EURGBP I was thinking they would hold EUR and drop GBP.

At around 2:45am I wasn't seeing anything on GBP, but EUR looked like it was a trade to go lower, even ahead of the news (which in hindsight might have been a terrible idea) with a tight stop if I was wrong.

I took a short at 1.0633 fill, with stop at 1.0655, which might have been too big, and probably 1.0650 was the right stop in that scenario, looking for liquidity below 1.0585, so a 2.5:1 trade basically.

With USDX having behaved as I was expecting by dropping lower to take out stops and then a move higher.

The news did not move the market a lot, but the trade started going in my direction. The trade size was 1 mini lot, which is the minimum amount I can trade on this platform. After about an hour, the first target was taken out and I would have liked to take some off but I can't with the sizes I'm trading at.

And USDX looking to take out a high:

The trade stalled there for a while, and only moved lower another 5-10 pips on EURUSD, with nothing really happening. I had moved my stop to +3 pips to break out even if it spiked the other way as I did not see it going higher than where it started dropping from.

At 5:00am when London session ended, I decided to go to sleep, I put my stop at +12pips as I did not want to see everything give up while I slept.

EUR went up higher to 1.0637 so it took out my stop and went higher to an H1 -OB, that gave two chances to get short again, but I was sleeping. Ultimately, EURUSD went to my target.

I probably mismanaged the trade but trailing the stop too tightly, it was psychology saying 'hey, you want to get paid something for this effort' which is probably the wrong mindset. It's hard to see your profits evaporate, there's no such thing as a free trade, even if you get out at break-even, at one point you were up. When I went to sleep my risk-reward was probably 1:1 or lower at that time and it's hard to take that trade.

Another thing I learned is that trading London is hard with my schedule. I live on the East Coast and getting up anywhere between 2-4 in the morning is tough, and it's especially hard staying up watching the trade and micromanaging. I'm going to have to learn to trade New York or look for a set up and then go to sleep and trust my analysis and my stop.

USDCAD -4pips

So many lessons learned today, mostly about patience, trading London and not trying to do something just to be doing something. 

So, I got up at 7am and what I had seen at midnight had already passed (up move to 0.7055 to fill a void on NZDUSD). I missed that GBP was giving a retracement to get a chance to get short to get my objective of 1.2345 sell stops being taken out. I did not really see anything on EUR, so I was looking at CAD. 

At the time I'm seeing that it has stalled at a +OB, and that GBPUSD still has room to drop (bullish USD). USDX was showing the same thing as USDCAD:

The analysis by itself is defensible, the problem I believe lies in the execution. I took the trade at 7:37am, at 1.3508, with an objective of 1.3565 stops, and a stop loss of 1.3493, essentially a 3R trade. What I failed to account for was that there would be a news release at 8:30am for CAD of high impact news, so I should have waited to see how it behaved prior to that. I guess I did not want to miss the trade by it going long, which is obviously flawed thinking.

USDCAD rejected faster at the 8:30am news release after dropping to 1.3497 and then stalled at 1.3430, where it started trading a bit lower, in tandem with USDX. I thought it'd ran higher already and trailed my stop to 1.3403 below the body of the closest +OB. 

Price went exactly to 1.3403, took me out, then continued higher and it currently sits at 1.3440, with USDX going higher as well.

I guess the takeaway from all of this is: don't try to do something because you are afraid you will miss a trade, because you are going to miss most of them, there are set ups every day.
Do not rush to trade ahead of the news, by mindful of those. Do not trail the stop too tightly.
I was thinking I had dodged a bullet and didn't want to suffer a bigger loss. I was also trying to make back what I'd lost the previous week all at once.

The minimum lot size is one mini on this account, which I'm treating as a 1,000 account (thought it's really 5,000). I had made 5.1% for the week on my trades for the week which was more than enough.

The psychological aspect is definitely a lot more important than the analytical one, because even with a solid idea, trade mismanagement can be killer.

NZDUSD Short +51pips

I had been paying attention to NZDUSD and had been able to see the movements well as it seems to be a currency that is very trendy instead of consolidating at the moment.

At 4:30am, I saw this price action in NZDUSD while USDX looked primed to rally. So I decided to take a short, aiming for 0.7035 as had been called previously on my notes.

The trade stalled for a long time but eventually started going lower.

I wanted to take something out at this point but 0.10 was my trade size and that's the smallest allowed on this platform so decided to monitor it. I did lower the stop to 0.7106 from the original of 0.7116.

The trade continued in my direction but was stalling again at this order block, but I was confident since it had breached the mean threshold of it.

After it traded to the lows, USDX was running over the high and failed to run higher with speed, so I decided to close out my position early instead of waiting for the last 5 pips. NZDUSD ended up going to 0.7035 and rejected fast, closing at 0.7099, so that was a good call on my part to get out early for +51 pips.

Totally Wrong on USDCAD -20pips

Again I messed up, took a trade and did not take a screenshot of what I was seeing at the time.
I'm going to try to recall as much as I can what I was thinking though.

It's about 12:05am and I'm thinking that I had my experience with the NZDUSD not getting the turtle soup so I do not want to miss another trade that looks 'obvious' to me as I was seeing equal highs on 1.3585 on USDCAD as can be seen below.

Therefore, I decided to take the long as I was seeing support off an H1 +OB, and took the long at 1.3540, with a stop at 1.3513, which was below the sell stops I was seeing the previous day.

USDX was supporting my analysis:

Because it was holding tight and respecting +OBs. Turns out USDX had a correction and USDCAD went seeking sell stops instead of the buy stops.

So I was completely wrong on my analysis and completely wrong in wanting to get in a trade prior to a good time with tight stops. I guess I wanted to take a trade more than really seeing it.

A Trade That Wasn't

So, I've been thinking I'd like to learn how to trade Asia as with my busy schedule, trading New York might not always be feasible, and getting up during London can be tough as I need all the rest I can get for sports. Also, I usually look at the markets and do my analysis at night, right before true day begins.

Anyway, I was looking at the markets around 11pm on November 10th, 2016, and going through my notes couldn't really find anything to trade on for any of the majors. I've been looking at NZDUSD, just to look at a different pair from the ones that I usually look at and try to learn it.

Here's what I'm seeing at 11:00PM or so:
The daily for NZD isn't giving me any bullish signs a lot, it looks bearish, like it has some to drop still.

At the same time, USDX looks bullish, like it wants to take out liquity above the high. I understand there are some interest rates differentials at play here, so it NZD might not always go in tandem with USDX, but I mean, the other half of that pair is USD, so at least it has to respect it somewhat.

On the 15M timeframe I noticed that there were some stops that might be turtled souped, so I placed a SELL LIMIT order at 0.7230, aiming for a 2R at 0.7175, with my stop at 0.7255 (25 pips), but thinking ultimately it might drop further to 0.7105 to take out equal lows at 0.7108, but having learned from yesterday, I figured I'd be very happy with a 4% return.

I did get the move up, but it only went to 0.7228, above the body of the candle, but not the wick so I didn't get my order filled. NZD ended up going to where I had projected.

I guess I'm a bit disappointed I didn't get it when I had called it but that is going to happen and need to continue learning. I'm liking this type of trade as I believe it forms frequently enough to do it every week and I don't have to be crazy glued to the screens. If I ever become a professional trader then I might try to do things differently but nonetheless I like this trade.

Maybe I should have considered setting the price lower at the candle's body but I have seen turtle soups take even the wicks so I am not sure on that one. I feel better about the stop loss on this trade.

More learning to come.

GBPUSD +3pips

I had not done any trades yet as I rather come to my own conclusions based on my analysis. When the schedule permits, I'll watch a live session, otherwise, I'll watch after I've done my own analysis, especially with the market reviews.

Anyhow, this week I was determined to start demo trading if I found a set up as I'd seen I'd gotten better at analysis and seeing where price could potentially go. I should have recorded this every step of the way as hindsight is 20/20 but I'm going to try and do my best recollection.

This is what I was seeing at 10:45PM Eastern Time:

    

I know it's Asia but USDX looks bullish to me as it's respecting a -OB, market structure was broken on the upside, and since I play semi-pro soccer and we practice in the mornings I know I can't be live at 7am, and I didn't want to get up at 3am, as I also work 10-6. This might be my schedule for the foreseeable future so I said, you know what, I might need to learn to choose my set ups in Asia and have a short-term focus rather than an intra-day one (which is what I would prefer).

I looked at CAD, and had no idea where it could go. EUR wasn't sure where to go short so I passed it and then came to see this in GBP:

  

Which looked bearish to me and would go hand in hand with bullish USDX. I looked for EURGBP for extra confirmation and I read it wrong:

  
I saw price close below mean threshold of +OB, and thought that meant GBP was stronger, but still screwed up thinking it confirmed my idea.

Anyway, I'm feeling nervous because I don't want to be wrong, then I remember I'm here to learn and that this is practice, it's demo, and this will remove those feelings so I decided to place a SELL LIMIT order because I'm thinking they will Turtle Soup to take out GBPUSD stops highlighted in the picture and then drive the price lower as USDX goes higher.

I chose 1.2450 for the sell, with stops at 1.2475 (25 pips, to give an extra cushion for the 10-20 pips they like to run stops with, and also bottom of a -OB but mostly, if it's a turtle soup, it shouldn't get that high anyway). 
The account has $5,000 and min size is 0.10, so that's why I took since it's demo, and when I start live, it'll probably be with $1000. 

I had the following targets in mind: 1.2380, 1.2360 and ultimately 1.2345 (getting out early to get the fill, of course). I got up at 6:15am to get ready for practice and saw this:

  

I wanted to take out a portion off, something like 20% to get paid but unfortunately 0.10 is minimum lot size in this platform. So I moved my stop to 1.2447, and went to practice. When I returned it had run past that on the upside.

Conclusion:

I was wrong in my analysis thinking it was going to go lower, and misread EURGBP. EURGBP was saying: EUR weaker, GBP stronger. Nonetheless, I was in profit so maybe I should have closed the entire position? I didn't realize I was wrong at the time of course, so closing a portion there at 35 pips or so would've been great. Also, I need to set alerts when my price is about to get reached to get some stuff out.

Not sure about the initial stop loss, but I think it makes sense, and I was ultimately looking for 2R, 3R and 4R along the way. 

Though I'm a bit disappointed it didn't pan out, I'm glad the trade didn't lose money and even though the reasoning was wrong, I followed a plan of action. 

This just shows I have a lot more to learn and I look forward to continuing on this journey.